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The Nigerian Experience C. It specifically investigates theeffects and the causal relationship between the two variables in Nigeria. This was with the view to providingempirical evidence for stock market operation to stimulate economic growth with maximising the welfare of thepeople. An Error Correction Mechanism ECM Model was adopted in the analyses of the interaction between stock marketand economic growth.

The granger causality pairwise test was conducted in determining the causal relationshipamong the variables. The empirical results showed that, there was unidirectional causality between stock market and economic growth,which ran from economic growth GDP to stock market MCAP at 5 percent significant level.

The study concludes that, the Nigerian stock market is no exception to other developing countries which areworking towards reforming and deepening their financial systems through the expansion of its stock markets in orderto improve their ability to mobilize resources and efficiently allocate them to the most productive sectors of theeconomy so as to enhance economic growth.

This is made possible through some of the vital roles playedsuch as channeling resources, promoting reforms to modernize the financial sectors, financial intermediationcapacity to link deficit to the surplus sector of the economy, and a veritable tool in the mobilization and allocation ofsavings among competitive users which are critical to the growth and efficiency of the economy Alile It helps tochannel capital or long-term resources to firms with relatively high and increasing productivity thus enhancingeconomic expansion and growth Alile Ekundayo argues that a nation requires a lot of local and foreigninvestments to attain sustainable economic growth and development.

The capital market provides a meansthrough which this is made possible. However, the paucity of long-term capital has posed the greatest predicamentto economic growth in most African countries including Nigeria.

Osaze sees the capital market as the driver ofany economy to growth and development because it is essential for the long-term growth capital formation, It iscrucial in the mobilization of savings and channeling of such savings to profitable self-liquidating investment.

TheNigerian capital market provides the necessary lubricant that keeps turning the wheel of the economy. It not onlyprovides the funds required for investment but also efficiently allocates these funds to projects of best returns tofund owners.

This allocative function is critical in determining the overall growth of the economy.

Thefunctioning of the capital market affects liquidity, acquisition of information about firms, risk diversification, savingsmobilization and corporate control Anyanwu Therefore, by altering the quality of these services, thefunctioning of stock markets can alter the rate of economic growth Equakun Okereke-Onyiuke positsthat the cheap source of funds from the capital market remain a critical element, in the sustainable development of the 2.

She enumerated the advantages of capital market financing to include no short repayment period asfunds are held for medium and long term period or in perpetuity, funds to stale and local government without pressuresand ample time to repay loans. The importance of stock market in the economic growth of any country cannot be overemphasized.

Studieson this topic show that there are many potential effects of stock market on economic growth but the effects are ofhighly uncertain magnitude and conflicting direction. The argument for stock market and economic growth weresupported by various empirical studies such as Levine and Zervous and Javanonic , Levine andZervous Rousseau and Wachtel , Beck and Levine show that stock market development is strongly correlatedwith growth rates of real per capital.

More importantly, they found that stock market liquidity and banking sectordevelopment both predict the future of the economy when they both enter the growth regression. In Nigeria, Alile , Ekundayo , Osaze Anyanwu , equakun , Ewan et alOkereke-Onyiuke amongst others have examined the effect of stock market on economic growth andproduced mixed result. Specifically Ariyo and Adelogun examined the impact of stock market and economicgrowth and contend that the liberalization of capital market led to the growth of Nigeria economy but the growth ofnegligible in economic sense.

Again, Donwa and Odia analyses the impact of the Nigerian capital market oneconomic growth and found that capital market indices have not impact positively on the Gross Domestic Product. There have been the growing concerns and controversies on the role of the Stock markets on economic growthand development Oyejide ; Levine and Zervos ; Demirgue-kunt and Levine ; Nyong ; Obadan; Sule and Momoh ; Ewah.

Esang and Bassey There have been mixed results; while some are insupport of a positive link, some negative link and others do not find any empirical evidence to support such conclusion. For instance, Atje and Jovanovic found in a cross-country study of stock and economic growth of 40countries from to that there was a significant correlation between the average economic growth andstock market capitalization.

Levine and Zervos examined whether there was a strong empirical relationship betweenstock market development and long-run economic growth. They found a strong correlation between overall stockmarket development and long-run economic growth.

Demiurgic-Kunt and Levine using data from 44 countries for the period to found that different measuresof stock exchange size are strongly correlated to other indicators of activity levels of financial, banking,non-banking institutions as well as to insurance companies and pension funds.

They concluded that countrieswith well-developed stock markets tend to also have well-developed financial intermediaries. Again,Demiurgic-Kunt and Vlaksi-movic have shown and re-emphasized the complementary role of the stock marketand banks that they were not rival or alternative institutions using 30 countries from to Levine and Zervos used pooled cross-country time series regression of 47 countries from to to evaluate whether stockmarket liquidity is related to growth, capital accumulation and productivity.

They towed the line of"Demiurgic-Kunt and Levine by conglomerating measures such as stock market size, liquidity andintegration with world market, into index of stock market development. The rate of Gross Domestic Product GDP percapita was regressed on a variety of variables designed to control for initial conditions, political instability,investment in human capital and macro economic condition and then, included the conglomerated index of stockmarket development.

They found empirically that the measures of stock market liquidity were strongly related togrowth, capital accumulation and productivity while stock market size does not seems to correlate to economic growth. Nyong developed an aggregate index of capital market development and used it to determine itsrelationship with long-run economic growth in Nigeria. The study employed a time series data from to The four measures were combined into one overall composite index of capital market development using principalcomponent analysis.

The financial market depth was included as control. It was found that the capital market development isnegatively and significantly correlate with the long run growth in Nigeria. Demiurgic Kunt and Maksimovic cited inHenry found a relationship between economic growth and the stock market activity in the field of transmissions ofsecurity secondary market more than in funds channeling primary market.

Bartett demonstrated that a rising stockprice raises the wealth of the economy wealth effect by encouraging increase in investment. Ewan et al appraise theimpact of the capital market efficiency on the economic growth of Nigeria using time series data from to Theyfound that the capital market in Nigeria has the potential of growth inducing but it has not contributed meaningful to the 3. Harris did not find hard evidence that stock market activity affects the level of economic growth.

It should be noted, that most of these studies emphasize the importance of stock market in the economicgrowth process, they do not simultaneously examine the banking sector as a critical factor when considering theeffect of stock market and economic growth in a unified framework, which is the rationale for this study. However,the degree of impact of stock market on economic growth depends on supporting governmental policies and aconducive economic environment for investment activities.

This notwithstanding, more pressing question is whetherstock market development through banking sector have any long term effects on economic growth in Nigeria, andmore also, whether there is causal relationship between stock market and economic growth in Nigeria? Therefore,there is a need to know which of these variables causes the other and the direction of causality in Nigeria.

This papertherefore employs the use of Pairwise Granger Causality test in testing for causality between the two variables, whileError Correction Model ECM was employed to investigate the long run relationship of the two variables. Whilesection 2 examines the model, the empirical results are presented in section 3.

Section 4 concludes and makes policyrecommendations. Levine and Zervos , Demirgue Kunt et al and Ewah et al which have investigated linkage between sock market and economic growth. The modelspecific that economic growth Proxied by GDP is significantly influenced by the capital and money market indices Market capitalization, new issues, value of transaction and banks total assets Nigerian banks total asset is includedin this model to achieve the objective of this study.

The secondary data comprises of annual time series spanningfrom Evidence from the results shown in the table, it was confirmedthat all the variable market capitalization, Total new issues ,Value of transactions were stationary at levels, exceptBank total asset and gross domestic product that became stationary after first difference since the series hereintegrated of order one i.

Computed from study data3. It does not howeverimply that in the long-run the variables could not express long-run convergence i. Hence theneed to subject the residuals generated from their long run static regression to Dickey — Fuller test or AugmentedDickey — Fuller test to see if they are stationary.

The stationarity of the residuals is potent evidence that there isevidence of convergence to long-run equilibrium among the integrated variables. To be able to ascertain whetherthere is cointegration among variable of interest, it deems fit to initially determine the optimal lag length of variablesto be used. GCPI FCDT GEXRT GGDP Lags interval: Compiled by the Author The results of the co-integration in table 3.

This evidence of co-integration among the variables rules out spurious correlations andapplies that one direction of influence can be established among the variables. It is important to note that the existence of co-integration vectors among a group of variables may not implythat there is causal influence between pairs of variables in the model of co-integration test.

But in regression including time series data, the situation may be somewhat different.

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Because, timedoes not run backward, that is, if event A happens before event B, then it s possible that is causing B. This s roughly the idea behind the so called Granger Causality test, but it should be noted clearly that the question ofcausality is deeply philosophical with all kinds of controversies.

And at the other extreme are people who deny the existence of causality whatsoever. The econometrical Edward Learner Prefers the term precedence over causality. Francis diebold prefers the termpredictive causality. THE ESTIMATES OF CAUSALITY TESTDate: Obs F-Statistic Probability MCAP does not Granger Cause GDP 27 1. It should be noted that the causality runs from GDP to the two variablesat 5 percent level of significant.

Although, a weak unidirectional causality was found between value of transactionand GDP, running from GDP to value of transaction at 10 percent level of significant.

Also bank total asset wasfound to granger cause market capitalization which is very strong at 5 percent significant level, while a bi-directionalcausality exists between value of transaction and total new issue that is very strong at 5 percent significant level. From the result, it was reported that there exists a unidirectional causality between bank total asset and marketcapitalisation which runs from bank total asset to market capitalisation at 5 percent significant level.

Also aunidirectional causality was found between bank total asset and value of transaction, which runs from bank totalasset to value of transaction, at 5 percent significant level.

Another interesting result from the table above is thecausal relationship between bank total asset and total new issue showing a unidirectional relationship between thetwo variables but runs from both sides at different levels of 5 percent and 10 percent level of significant respectively. Fromour result above, bank total asset and value of transaction had a positive relationship with gross domestic product GDP while market capitalization and total new issue are related to gross domestic product GDP in the long runnegatively.

The ECM allows the long-run behavior of the endogenous variable to converge to their co integrating, thatis, long-run equilibrium relationship while allowing a wide range of short run dynamics. The short-run effects ofstock market indicators on economic growth GDP were analyzed using the coefficient from the lagged ECM. Market Capitalization MCAP , total New issues TNI , Value of transaction VLT and Bank total asset BTA.

On the basis of apriori expectation, only the coefficient ofthe bank total asset had negative sign. Others were in accordance with the apriori expectation in the short run. However, in the long run, total new issues and market capitalization were negatively signed as revealed from theresult in table 3. What one could deduced from this discussion is that, the economy responds favorably to measure taken to increasetotal listing of equity and government stock in the Nigerian Stock market.

The result is a true reflection of theNigerian economy and the performance of the Nigerian stock exchange. During the banking consolidation in , ahuge amount capital were mobilizes into the economy through initial public offering IPO by most banks. Unfortunately, these funds were not properly channeled into the productive sector and most international protocol ininvestor divested their funds as soon as return of investment collapsed due to the financial meltdown.

Again, the negative impact of value of transactions VLT could be attributed to the shallow nature of Nigerianstock exchange. The market is yet to be attractive to big-ticket local and international institutional investors. Thatwill inject substantial fund into the stock market. More so; the negative impact of banks total asset in the short run is expected as most banks asset does not justbegins to yield fruitful return at the early economic life of the asset.

Overtime, as these assets are being put into use,profit begins to accrue to the company and there will in turn impact positively on the Nigerian economy in the longrun. The finding agree with Ariyo and Adelegun and Ewah etal who found that the capital market inNigeria has not contributed meaningfully to the economic growth of Nigeria due to low market capitalization, smallmarket size, few listed Securities and low volume of transactions, low absorptive capacity, Liquidity etc.

Also ourresult supports Demirgue- kunt and Harris who found no hard evidence and strong positiverelationship between stock market and economic growth. The empirical evidence indicated that market Capitalization affects economic growth causally. By implication when there is an increase marketcapitalization more funds are made available to entrepreneurs to finance their business thereby leading to economicgrowth. Also, the negative relationship that was established between GDP and Value of transaction in Nigeria couldbe attributed to high transaction cost in the Nigerian Capital market.

The implication is that investors in Nigeriancapital market are low level investors that buy short and sell short. The impact of institutional investors are not yetfelt in the capital market. The positive relationship between bank total asset and GDP as shown in the study shown that economic growth goesup as exchange rate increase. By implication, Increase in bank total asset by way of increase in branches andtechnology will make bank facilities available to quite a number of customers and this will invariably increaseproductivity, employment and ultimately economic growth.

The Nigerian stock market is no exception to other developing countries which areworking towards reforming and deepening their financial systems through the expansion of its stock markets in orderto improve their ability to mobilize resources and efficiently allocate them to the most productive sectors of theeconomy so as to enhance economic growth.

A number of indicators like the size of the stock market, volumes oftrade, market capitalization, market liquidity, market concentration and degree of listing are used to show how themarket has grown over the time.

As indicated by the current trends, the market seems to be saddled with lowliquidity and slow growth in listings. The market is seen as facing a lot of challenge in its development and growth soit is crucial that the policies related to the market should be given a serious and accelerated attention. The criticalbottlenecks that contract the stock market should be clearly identified so that a better framework can be designed toguide the development of appropriate policies which will ultimately ensure the rapid development of the stockmarket in Nigeria.

In order to make the stock market less volatile, Securities and Exchange Commission SEC itselfshould be strengthened both in terms of number of manpower and quality of the professionals involved with specialfocus on independent research, monitoring mechanism and prompt decision making. Establishing a Stock market- The Nigerian Experience. Paper presented at the conference on promoting and Development Capital market in Africa Abuja, No.

The Business Concord December 2 P. Assessing the impact of capital market Reforms in Nigeria an incremental Approach.

Paper presented at the 46th annual conference of the Economic Society in Lagos in August Stock Market and Development. European Economic Review, Demirgue, Kunt A,; Asli, Levin R. Stock market, corporate finance and Economic Growth; An Overview.

The World Bank Review. Stock Market Development and financial Intermediaries: The world bank Economic Review, 10 2: Creating a conducive Environment for investment in the Nigeria Capital market. Paper presented at public Enlightenment on opportunities in the capital market for industrial Development of kogi state, Lokoja 29th March to 1st April The Nigeria capital market: Benin city University of Benin.

Efficiency on Economic Growth in Nigeria. International journal of Business and Management, December, pp.

Stock Market Development and Long-Run Growth in Nigeria: Journal of African Business: Vol 4, No 3

Stock Market Development and long-term Growth. The world Bank Economic Review.

American Economic Review, 88 3: The impact of stock market Earning on Nigeria per capital income. African journal of Accounting, Economics, finance and Banking Research. Capital Market Development and long run Economic Growth; Theory, Evidence and Analysis, First Bank Review. Presidential address presented at the I day seminar of the Nigerian Economic Society at the institute of international Affairs on 21st January Stock Market financing options for public projects in Nigeria.

The Nigeria Stock Exchange Fact Book, pp. The financial System and Economic Growth in the Context of Political Transition Central Bank of Nigeria Economic and Financial Review, 32 3 Paradigm shift, Misplaced concreteness and the Nigeria Financial system.

Inaugural lecture series, 41 University of Benin pp. The Nigeria capital market in the African and Global financial system. Bofic Consult Group Limited. This academic article was published by The International Institute for Science,Technology and Education IISTE. The IISTE is a pioneer in the Open AccessPublishing service based in the U.

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